The memory shortage has not eased. Its shape has changed, and the change is easy to misread.

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Spot prices are still climbing: the mainstream DDR4 8Gb chip reached $42.08 on July 28. Contract increases have decelerated sharply over the same period, from a record 90–95% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026 to a forecast 13–18% for server DRAM in Q3. Softening demand is not the reason. Long-term agreements now cap increases for the customers who hold them, which means the remaining pressure lands on everyone who does not.

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Looking further out, SK hynix expects 2027 to be the worst supply year in the industry's history, and the capacity being approved now produces its first wafers in 2029.

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This August edition covers what moved since our April report and what it means for the manufacturers and procurement teams we work with.

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It covers:

• Spot and contract pricing through July 28, including a correction to our April read on the DDR4 premium
• Automotive, industrial, embedded, and medical exposure, including where the evidence runs thin
• Allocation and fill rates, DDR4 end-of-life status, and CXMT's position after its Shanghai listing
• Counterfeit risk, including why almost a quarter of suspect parts pass electrical testing
• What buyers and sellers of electronic components should do right now
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